sábado, 30 de julio de 2011
Como se vende un bono chavista/ How to sell a chavista bond.
MEMORANDUM ON BONDS
Para quienes no leen inglés haré breves comentarios en español sobre extractos del prospecto que acompaña la emisión del nuevo bono chavista, el cual ofrece un interés del 11,95 por ciento. Ello nos da una idea de cuan deseperado está el régimen en su intento de mantener andando lo que yo veo como su gran esquema PONZI
Social and Political Risks
From the outset of the administration of President Chávez, the government has pursued policies focused on fundamentally changing the social and political order of Venezuela to promote the interests of the poorer elements of the population. In prior years significant social and political tensions have arisen from those elements of society
that oppose such initiatives.
Mi Comentario (todos mis comentarios siempre van en español): Según el prospecto la oposición a Chávez se debe a que el trata de ayudar a los pobres y el resto del país no lo deja. Esta es una gran mentira, ya que la oposición tiene que ver con la manera anti-democrática y corrupta como Chávez ha manejado al país.
Venezuela experienced an economic contraction in 2010 and other adverse economic and financial effects as a result of the global economic crisis.
Esta es una versión azucarada de la crisis venezolana, la cual se debe al manejo inepto de los recursos del país por una pandilla de delincuentes.
The Republic agrees that any suit, action or proceeding against it or its properties, assets or revenue with respect to the Bonds (a “Related Proceeding”) shall be brought exclusively in the courts of England that sit in London; in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York; in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York; or in the courts of the Republic that sit in Caracas, as the person bringing such Related Proceeding may elect in its sole discretion"...
Este párrafo revela como el régimen se baja los pantalones en lo referente a la jurisdicción extranjera, mientras sigue sosteniendo sus retensiones de "soberanía" en esta materia. .
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Liquid Operating Reserves ..28,731 23,094 31,804 17,446 8,831
millions of U.S. dollars
At December 31, 2010, Total Liquid Operating Reserves at Banco Central showed a 48.0% decrease from 2009 (and about a 70 percent decline from 2006, according to a Table in page 42)
En esta tabla se muestra, entre otras muchas cifras, como las reservas operativas del Banco Central se han desplomado en los ultimos seis años, lo cual hace al país muy vulnerable al "default".
In December 2010, the National Assembly passed the 2010 Enabling Law, granting President Chávez the power to legislate and approve laws by decree for a period of 18 months in a number of areas, including infrastructure, transportation and housing and public services, among others. The passage of the 2010 Enabling Law resulted in
part from the need for the Government to act quickly and decisively in response to record rains and floods...
El prospecto da por sentado que la motivación de la ley habilitante era la de atender emergencias, lo cual no es cierto. Era para consolidar el poder y para neutralizar la Asamblea Nacional, donde habría una representación de la oposición.
During 2010, the capital account recorded a deficit of U.S.$18.8 billion. The deficit in the capital account in 2010 was due to an increase in external assets by both the public sector and the non-financial private sector. In 2010, foreign direct investment inflows totaled U.S.$ 668 million.
Aquí, el prospecto habla elegantemente de la fuga de capitales y la contrasta con una inversión extranjera mínima en relación a lo fugado.
Construction, employed, % of total ., 1,057,616 9.5 % .
Aquí el prospecto da por cierta la estadística oficial de empleo en el sector construcción, una actividad que ha sufrido un colapso dramático en el país. El prospecto sugiere una sostenida actividad en el sector.
In South America, PDVSA is working on the construction of the Abreu e Lima refinery in Brazil (40% PDVSA share), with a capacity of 230,000 bpd, which is estimated to begin in 2012. In Ecuador, the Pacific Refining Complex Eloy Alfaro Delgado (49% PDVSA share) is estimated to begin production in 2015 and have a capacity of 300,000 bpd.
Esto es inexacto. PDVSA aún no ha puesto ni un centavo en la refinería brasileña. La refinería ecuatoriana está aún en maqueta.
As of December 31, 2010, FONDEN had allocated approximately U.S.$63.4 billion, or approximately 94.3% of the funds available, to the various projects financed by FONDEN, including, among others: approximately U.S.$3.6 billion allocated to 28 mining projects; approximately U.S.$19.4 billion allocated to 39 energy and petroleum projects; approximately U.S.$3.7 billion allocated to 21 housing projects; approximately U.S.$2.8 billion allocated to 55 agriculture projects; approximately U.S.$1.37 billion allocated to 22 science and technology projects; and approximately U.S.$1.1 billion allocated to 24 environmental projects. FONDEN keeps its resources in financial trusts (local and foreign currency investments) at Banco del Tesoro, where funds are being disbursed in accordance with projected execution levels.
Esto que el prospecto asume como cierto debe ser tomado cum granus salis... FONDEN carece de transparencia y muchos de estos "proyectos' podrían no existir.
Fiscal Deficit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(as percentage of GDP) ..1.6% 0.0% 3.0% (1.2)% (5.1)%
Esta estadística muestra un preocupante incremento del déficit fiscal, el cual está siendo cubierto por un galopante endeudamiento.
Given the profound economic disparities found in the social structure of the country, the domestic initiatives are focused on the need to redirect economic resources to the poorer segments of society in order to create the proper conditions for sustainable growth and the highest level of welfare for the inhabitants of Venezuela. In addition, the initiatives seek to give a greater voice to workers in business enterprises. The following initiatives, among others, have been or are currently being undertaken:
the reallocation of unproductive business assets to productive activities in order to promote job creation;
the creation of new ministries with responsibility for housing, nutrition, gender equality and financial aid;
the mandatory allocation of a portion of commercial banks’ credit portfolios to pivotal economic areas such as housing, agriculture, tourism and manufacturing;
the strengthening of existing, and creation of new, national development and social funds to provide specific resources to major infrastructure projects and massive social programs;
the introduction of diverse initiatives of co-management and self-management among workers, employers and supervisors, as options to reshape either state companies and/or abandoned manufacturing facilities, as a fast-track measure to activate these entities and to promote stable job generation;
the creation of Government-owned entities to provide low-cost commercial services with a high level of social impact, such as airlines, telecommunications and food chain distribution;
the purchase, at market prices, of all companies in the electric sector and Compañía Anónima Nacional Teléfonos de Venezuela, referred to as CANTV, Venezuela’s largest telephone carrier, to secure stability in service rates and minimize their impact on inflation;
the formation of joint ventures for certain cement and chemical companies and foodstuff producers and retailers;
the purchase of all companies in the cement sector and Siderúrgica del Orinoco, C.A., referred to as SIDOR, Venezuela’s largest steelmaker, to help reduce prices in Venezuela;
the nationalization of the briquettes producers located in the Guayana region of southern Venezuela;
the purchase of Banco de Venezuela, the fourth largest bank in Venezuela.
Esta es una versión altamente sanitizada, que suena "bien", del desastre de las políticas del régimen: co-gerencia, estatificación de empresas, comida podrida, etc. Según el prospecto, todo se ha hecho para crear mejores condiciones sociales y económicas en el país. Esto es pure and unadulterated bullshit.
Other nationalized assets are being used to further social and economic development. In April 2010, nationalized insurance firms were used to create a state-owned insurance company aimed at reforming healthcare. In January 2010, Hipermercados Éxito, a superstore chain in Venezuela, was nationalized by presidential decree following charges of price gouging in defiance of the newly established economic policies. The stores purchased by the Government will be used to expand Comerso, a Government-run, low-cost retail chain.
Nationalized oil rigs and power plants are being utilized by PDVSA to increase oil production and the capacity of the electricity grid. On June 30, 2010, Venezuela took control of eleven oil rigs that were the property of U.S. driller Helmerich & Payne, Inc., or H&P, after H&P and PDVSA could not agree on renegotiated rates and service plans. PDVSA plans to use the drills to increase oil production by approximately 300,000 bpd and to strengthen the country’s sovereignty over the oil sector.
Esto es más bullshit, casi bordeando en lo fraudulento. Dice, por ejemplo, que la toma de Helmerich&Payne se debió a no poderse llegar a un acuerdo en términos contractuales. Se debió a que PDVSA no le quería o podía pagarle a H&P lo que le debía.
The Government has adopted a policy of containing inflationary pressures in the economy and is taking a number of actions to reverse the inflationary trends. These actions include avoiding the monetization of PDVSA’s income by direct contributions of income to the National Development Fund, referred to as the Fondo de Desarollo Nacional, or FONDEN, and the retention of foreign exchange for direct payment of foreign currency expenditures, increasing the amount of foreign currency made available to providers of domestic goods and services and increasing investment in areas of the economy most prone to inflationary pressures, including the agro-industrial sector. During the first quarter of 2007, the National Executive Branch announced additional policies intended to control inflation. These measures were primarily aimed at stimulating the aggregate supply, both internally and externally, to minimize inflationary expectations and to increase price control efficiency by strengthening and expanding the public food distribution networks. Furthermore, the VAT was removed from certain goods and services categorized as basic necessities, in addition to the three percentage point reduction in the VAT for all other taxable goods and services effective March 1, 2007 and a further two percentage point reduction effective July 1, 2007. The Government is preparing economic measures in 2010 in order to: (1) strengthen regional economic integration; (2) decrease inflation by defining monetary policies to limit the structural causes of inflation while improving efficiency in the foreign exchange market; and (3) increase investment levels for productive activities in order to reduce economic vulnerabilities. To date in 2010, the Government has continued taking measures aimed at controlling inflation, most notably in the food sector, by organizing food distribution and improving the foreign exchange market for imports through a new system for transactions of securities in foreign currency under the supervision of Banco Central.
Este es un tango arrabalero, más bullshit.
Early in February 2002, President Chávez appointed, in accordance with PDVSA bylaws and as it had regularly been done every two years, a new board of directors of PDVSA that included long term executives of PDVSA. A number of PDVSA management politically connected to the opposition protested the appointments and were joined by the opposition controlled labor union named Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, or CTV, in a two-day general strike which culminated in a public rally by thousands of opposition demonstrators demanding the resignation of President Chávez on April 11, 2002.
Esta versión de la protesta petrolera de 2002 tiene un falso mensaje subliminal, según el cual Chávez actuó de acuerdo a las leyes y un grupo de gererentes politizados protestó. Así no fueron las cosas y el mismo Chávez se jactó ante la Asamblea Nacional de haber orquestado todo el asunto para tomar el control político de la empresa.
Beginning in 2002, the Government designed social programs, called Missions, with the objective of providing social services in the areas of health, education and employment, among others. Bs.7.0 billion were allocated in the 2005 national budget to fund these social programs. In 2006, Bs.14.9 billion were allocated in the national budget to fund the Missions, while in 2007, Bs.11.9 billion were allocated in the national budget to fund the Missions. In 2008, Bs.5.6 billion were allocated in the national budget to fund the Missions, and in 2009, Bs.5.6 billion were allocated for that purpose. In 2010, Bs.5.6 billion were allocated in the national budget to fund the Missions. At December 2009, there were 14 Missions nationwide and the Government believes that they have proven to be a successful mechanism to help relieve the major problems of those most in need.
Additionally, President Chávez’s administration has created state-owned entities to provide low-cost commercial services and to stimulate domestic production. Among the initiatives are a state-owned international airline, Conviasa, and Venirauto (formerly known as Venezuela Móvil), a joint car company owned 51% by Iran and 49%
by Venezuela, which was created in 2006 in order to stimulate the production and distribution of low-cost automobiles.
En esta versión rosada, rosadita, de las misiones y empresas estatales todo va de maravillas. Uno pensaría que el país se mueve sobre ruedas producidas por Venirauto y todo el mundo vuela en Conviasa!
Between 2004 and 2006, Venezuela entered into agreements with numerous countries which focused on the delivery of oil, the fight against terrorism and drugs, poverty and other matters. The Government is pursuing a variety of regional initiatives known as the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, or ALBA, and the South American Union of Nations, or UNASUR. These initiatives are designed to strengthen cooperation among Latin American and Caribbean countries. In this connection, the Transoceanic Pipeline, an important energy integration project between Colombia and Venezuela, is under development. In 2004, Venezuela became an associate member of Mercosur. Venezuela has encouraged these countries to take part in numerous energy integration projects such as the Great Southern Pipeline and the Petrosur initiative, as well as building and expanding refineries in Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. In April 2006, Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia entered into the Peoples’ Trade Treaty, which is a political, social and economic cooperation agreement that covers initiatives in trade, health, social services and energy, among other matters. In 2007 and 2008, the treaty was expanded to include Honduras, Nicaragua and the Caribbean nation of Dominica.
En este cuento idílico el gasoducto del sur va bien, Petrosur parece una realidad, el ALBA es un éxito, la lucha contra las drogas se está ganando, etc.... Que nos cuenten otra de vaqueros....
As the labor force of Venezuela has grown in recent years, there have been numerous efforts to absorb the increasing numbers of workers in Venezuela, particularly persons migrating from rural to urban areas. Beginning in 2003, social Missions have led to significant improvements in the training and education of manufacturing and agricultural workers. At the end of 2007, the labor force was estimated at 12.4 million. The rate of unemployment decreased from 9.3% at year-end 2006 to 7.5% at year-end 2007, which was due primarily to increased public sector opportunities including the expanding social Missions. At the end of 2008, the labor force totaled approximately 12.7 million, and the rate of unemployment decreased to 6.8% at year-end 2008. At the end of 2009, the labor force totaled approximately 13.0 million. The rate of unemployment increased to 7.5% at year-end 2009, primarily due to the impact of the global economic crisis on the Venezuelan economy.
La fuerza laboral, dice el prospecto, ha crecido y está siendo entrenada (?) por las misiones, con gran éxito. Esto es ciencia-ficción.
The percentage of poor and extremely poor among the Venezuelan population decreased from 43.7% in 2005 to 31.7% in 2009.
Esto no es lo que dicen las estadísticas de organismos internacionales, como el BM, la ONU, la Fundación ETHOS, etc. según las cuales la pobreza en Venezuela no ha experimentado la dramática declinación de la cual se hace eco este prospecto.
Since its inception in 1975, PDVSA has been operating as a state-owned commercial entity vested with commercial and financial autonomy. PDVSA is regulated by the Ministry of Popular Power for Energy and Petroleum, or MENPET, and it is required by law to sell all foreign currency revenues to Banco Central, with the exception of an amount that it is permitted to maintain in a foreign currency in order to meet its foreign currency-denominated investments and expenses. The balance of such proceeds, net of all applicable corporate income tax, dividends and royalties, must be transferred to FONDEN to be used for social, educational, health care, liability management and special and strategic purposes. For more information on FONDEN, refer to “Introduction—Recent Economic Developments—The Current Economic Situation”. PDVSA, the most important contributor to Venezuela’s GDP, exports and fiscal revenues, is responsible for coordinating most aspects of the petroleum industry, including administration, planning, operations, domestic and foreign marketing and capital investment. From 1978 through January 2006, PDVSA was responsible for the petrochemical sector, but this is now the responsibility of MENPET. Since 1985, PDVSA has also been responsible for the development of coal resources located in western Venezuela, although in 2004, substantial responsibilities in this regard were transferred to Carbozulia, a fund for both regional development and for the development of Venezuela’s bitumen resources. Through its subsidiaries, PDVSA supervises, controls and develops the petroleum, gas and coal industries in Venezuela.
Este largo párrafo sobre PDVSA contiene una gran mentira inicial, esa de que PDVSA se maneja con autonomía financiera y comercial. Eso es falso de toda falsedad. Han podido callar, antes de decir esto, ya que esa afirmación contamina al resto del párrafo.
PDVSA uses geological and engineering data to estimate its proven crude oil and natural gas reserves, including proven developed and undeveloped reserves. Such data is capable of demonstrating with reasonable certainty whether such reserves are recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
Otra mentira. La certificación de reservas probadas que PDVSA ha hecho en la Faja no está basada en datos geológicos y de ingeniería suficientes para demostrar "con razonable certeza" que tales reservas serán recuperables en el futuro "bajo las condiciones económicas y operacionales existentes".
Señores del Prospecto. Les notifico que, en base a lo que me dicen, he decidido NO comprar el bono, por más atractivo que parezca. Usaré mis millones en otra cosa. Quizás estoy influenciado por el libro de Harry Markopolos: "No one would listen", en el cual describe la saga trágica de Bernie Madoff. Como en USA, en Venezuela tampoco parece haber mucha gente escuchando!